This paper compares the performance of probabilistic and deterministic capacity models for reinforced timber members under compression perpendicular to the grain. A database collecting approximately 60 test results has been compiled by reviewing research papers and master’s and doctoral theses from the past twenty years. The capacity model proposed for the next generation of Eurocodes assesses the capacity as the minimum between the values associated with two failure modes, one at the contact plate and one at the screw tips. The main drawbacks of the model are the excessive elaborateness, given its limitation in accuracy and the fallacy in predicting the observed failure modes. In detail, the failure by the screw tips seldom occurs, although it was expected in more than half of the selected specimens. The authors attempted to simplify the capacity equation by proposing a generalized expression corresponding to the failure mode at the contact plate, corrected by a factor including the effects of load and screw arrangement and geometric details of the specimen. A deterministic mechanical model obtained by multiplying the timber strength by the contact area with a given coefficient performs better than the Eurocode model, which attempts to include the effect of load diffusion (R suitable fitting (R 2 ˜ 0.27 ). A constant factor equal to 2 yields a 2 ˜ 0.76 ). The best performance is achieved with a four-term polynomial, with adimensional addends, leading to an optimum fitting (R 2 ˜ 0.82).