Background
Harvested wood products (HWPs) mitigate climate change through carbon storage, material substitution, and energy substitution. We construct a model to assess the overall climate change mitigation effect (comprising the carbon storage, material substitution, and energy substitution effects) resulting from HWPs in regions of Japan. The model allows for projections to 2050 based on future scenarios relating to the domestic forestry industry, HWP use, and energy use.
Results
Using the production approach, a nationwide maximum figure of 2.9 MtC year-1 for the HWP carbon storage effect is determined for 2030. The maximum nationwide material substitution effect is 2.9 MtC year-1 in 2050. For the energy substitution effect, a nationwide maximum projection of 4.3 MtC year-1 in 2050 is established, with at least 50 % of this figure derived from east and west Japan, where a large volume of logging residue is generated. For the overall climate change mitigation effect, a nationwide maximum projection of 8.4 MtC year-1 in 2050 is established, equivalent to 2.4 % of Japan’s current carbon dioxide emissions.
Conclusions
When domestic roundwood production and HWP usage is promoted, an overall climate change mitigation effect is consistently expected to be attributable to HWPs until 2050. A significant factor in obtaining the material substitution effect will be substituting non-wooden buildings with wooden ones. The policy of promoting the use of logging residue will have a significant impact on the energy substitution effect. An important future study is an integrated investigation of the climate change mitigation effect for both HWPs and forests.
By considering trade-offs and complementarity between carbon removal from the atmosphere by forests and emission reduction by wood use, we developed a forest-sector carbon integrated model for Japan. We discuss mitigation measures for Japan based on model projections. The integrated model included the forest model and the wood use model. Based on three scenarios (baseline, moderate increase, and rapid increase) of harvesting and wood use, the integrated model projected mitigation effects including carbon removal by forests and emission reduction through the wider use of wood, until 2050. Results indicate that forests will not become a source of net carbon emissions under the three scenarios considered. The baseline scenario is most effective for mitigating climate change, for most periods. However, the sum total of carbon removal in forests and carbon emission reductions by wood use under the rapid increase scenario exceeded the one of the moderate increase scenario after 2043. This was because of strong mitigation activities: promoting replanting, using new high-yield varieties, and wood use. The results also indicated that increases in emission reduction due to greater wood use compensated for 67.9 % of the decrease of carbon removal in 2050, for the rapid increase scenario. The results show that carbon removal in forests is most important in the short term because of the relative youth of the planted forests in Japan, and that mitigation effects by material and energy substitution may become greater over the longer term.